原标题:长信基金副总经理安昀:投资就像等待油画变干 来源:FUND部落

长信基金副总经理安昀:投资就像等待油画变干安昀

  今年行情超过了很多投资者的预期。从货币宽松到经济复苏,市场的主线也很明确。虽然市场水位高企,但是投资者也没有更多的选择,依然在场内航行,只是波动明显加大。

  面对高估值水位,该怎么应对?资管产品要做到四个因素统一:客户预期、产品策略、基金经理风格和产品考核。基于此,可以把产品分为绝对收益理念和相对收益理念两类。

  绝对收益理念产品是以较低风险获取合理收益为目标,所以在资产配置和选股层面会更加在意波动;而相对收益产品是以合理风险获取较高收益为目标,在考虑安全边际的同时也要考虑和基准的匹配。

  然而,波动和收益是一对矛盾体。在过往的实践中发现,如果能够抗住一定的波动,持有的很多优质公司的收益可能会更高。市场和公司经营都会有周期和波动,但波动不等于风险。很多持有优质公司的仓位,看似波动略大,但实际上风险并不大。尤其是如果考虑时间的推移,风险更小。在这种市况下,依然建议绝对收益理念产品降低仓位,而相对收益理念产品继续持有优质公司以穿越波动。

  萨缪尔森曾说,投资就像粉刷匠等待油漆变干,或者园丁等待花儿开放,虽然结果令人期待,但是过程非常乏味。要用心做的,一是确保好花栽在好土里,二是维护保养,三是耐心等待。

  展望未来半年,市场大概率还会有新高。因为经济复苏仍在持续,在未来某段时间甚至会出现内外复苏的共振。从国内来看,年内经济环比复苏和明年上半年同比复苏的概率是很大的,明年的季报和半年报企业盈利也会呈现漂亮的表观数字。从A股的传统来看,投资者倾向于给高业绩增速以高估值,所以市场明年上半年很有可能创出新高。

  同时,很多行业的龙头公司在上半年疫情较为严重时收割了一定的市场份额。一方面,这些公司的现金流更好,非但可以撑过行业低谷期,还能有机会拿更多的份额;另一方面,疫情导致许多线下营销活动无法进行,这也客观上加强了龙头公司的产品动销。如果在行业低迷时能够增加份额,那么在行业复苏之时,这些龙头公司的弹性就会增加,收入和利润也会上一个台阶。看到长远,特别珍视在疫情这个试金石中表现出优越素质的公司。

  面对同样的外部冲击,不同公司的应对是非常不同的。少数公司表现出了很好的应变能力以及把这种应变贯彻下去的执行力,从而把损失减到最小,并在疫情结束后反而提升了份额,这类公司是非常值得深度研究并长期跟踪的。

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责任编辑:石秀珍 SF183

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